exploring stratified sampling: august 14, 2020

Without a Comparison Group Why is COVID A Problem?

Residential Sector COVID Impacts:

Blue line is CalTRACK Hourly Counterfactual. Orange line is observed usage.

Without a comparison group to account for COVID, the increase in consumption wipes out program savings.

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Chart Shows Analysis from March 19 - May 8; 7.2% Increase in consumption due to COVID

Diff-of-Diff: A (Slightly) Deeper Dive

The “Difference of Differences” Calculation

• Step 1: Create baseline period model for treatment group and project that model as a counterfactual into the reporting period (Counterfactual_Treatment)
• Step 2: Create baseline period model for comparison group and project forward as a counterfactual (Counterfactual_Comparison)
• Step 3: Calculate savings as:
  
  

Savings = 
(Counterfactual_Treatment - Observed_Treatment) - (Counterfactual_Comparison - Observed_Comparison)

Video of the August 14, 2020 Meeting: Comparison WG VIDEO - 2020-08-14

Slides from the August 14, 2020 Meeting (cumulative): Comparison WG SLIDES - 2020-08-14

Chat Record from the August 14, 2020 Meeting: Comparison WG Chat - 2020-08-14